How to Spot Rugpulls Before They Happen

Every 12 seconds, someone loses their money to a rugpull. Not because they're stupid. Not because they didn't check. But because the scammers have gotten too good.

The tools we trust - RugCheck, TokenSniffer, DEXScreener - catch only 62% of scams at best. When scammers use multiple attack vectors, detection drops to 31%. There are 9 types of rugpulls that no scanner can detect.

Last week alone: MELANIA token stole $2.4 million. LIBRA took $6 million plus $107 million in liquidity. HAWK saw 80% of supply grabbed by insiders in seconds. One trader documented losing $75,000 to successive rugpulls despite "doing research."

These weren't newbies. They used scanners. They checked contracts. They still lost everything.

Here's what they missed - and how you can spot what the scanners can't.

The False Security of Green Checkmarks

You run a token through RugCheck. Green checkmark. Safe, right?

Wrong.

Current scanners are like antivirus software from 2005 - they catch known patterns but miss anything new. Scammers know exactly what these tools check for and code around them.

Here's a simple example. Scanners check if ownership is renounced. So scammers renounce ownership but keep a hidden backup control:

The scanner sees "Ownership Renounced ✓" You see safety. The scammer still has full control.

This isn't sophisticated. This is basic. And it fools scanners every time.

The 9 Undetectable Rugpull Types

Research from 2024 identified nine categories of rugpulls that no current scanner reliably detects:

1. Multi-hop fund obfuscation - Money bounces through 3+ wallets before the rug
2. Time-delayed ownership reclaim - Control returns to scammer after you've bought
3. Hidden state variables - Secret switches in the code that activate later
4. Cross-contract dependencies - The rug is in a different contract entirely
5. Compiler-specific bugs - Exploits in how the code is compiled, not written
6. Metadata manipulation - The visible data lies about what the contract does
7. Upgradeable proxy backdoors - Contract can be completely replaced later
8. MEV bundle coordinated exits - Multiple wallets exit in one atomic transaction
9. AI-generated organic volume - Fake trading that looks completely real

These aren't theoretical. These are being used right now, today, to steal millions.

How Rugpulls Actually Work

Let me show you the three most common patterns that are stealing money right now:

The Honeypot (You Can't Sell)

You buy a token. Price goes up. You try to sell. Transaction fails. You try again. Fails again. You realize: you can never sell.

The contract has a hidden blacklist. Everyone who buys gets added. The scanner showed it was safe because the blacklist function has an innocent name like "updateRewards" or "optimizeGas."

690 honeypot variants have been identified, generating $90,000+ average per scam.

The Slow Rug (Boiling Frog)

Day 1: 5% buy tax, 5% sell tax Day 2: 5% buy tax, 7% sell tax (fighting bots, they say) Day 3: 5% buy tax, 10% sell tax (protecting holders!) Day 7: 5% buy tax, 25% sell tax Day 10: 5% buy tax, 99% sell tax

You can still sell, technically. You just lose everything when you do.

The Insider Dump (Social Engineering)

This is what got MELANIA and LIBRA. The contract is perfect. The liquidity is locked. Everything checks out.

But 15 wallets connected to the team hold 60% of supply. They all sell within the same 30-second window. Price goes to zero. Liquidity is worthless.

No scanner can detect this because the code is legitimate. The scam is in the behavior, not the contract.

The 15-Minute Security Check

Forget automated scanners. Here's what actually works:

1. The Wallet Check (3 minutes)

Look at the first 20 buyers. Are they connected?

Go to Bubble Maps or Arkham. Enter the token address. Look at the wallet clusters. If you see a spider web of connections between early buyers, run. They're all the same person.

Real organic growth looks messy. Scams look organized.

2. The Liquidity Check (3 minutes)

"Liquidity Locked" means nothing if you don't verify:

• Is it locked in a real locker? (Unicrypt or PinkLock, not custom contracts)
• For how long? (Less than 6 months = red flag)
• Can it be emergency withdrawn? (Check the lock contract)
• What percentage is locked? (Should be 90%+)

If the answer to any of these is unclear, don't trade.

3. The Developer Check (3 minutes)

Find the deployer wallet. Check their history:

• Have they deployed other tokens? How did those end?
• Where did their initial funds come from?
• Are they accumulating more tokens after launch?

One previous rugpull = guaranteed future rugpull. Leopards don't change spots.

4. The Smell Test (3 minutes)

If it smells wrong, it is wrong:

• Celebrity name in token? Scam.
• Promises of guaranteed returns? Scam.
• "Accidentally" leaked contract address? Scam.
• Urgent "limited time" pressure? Scam.
• Too good to be true? It is.

5. The Transaction Test (3 minutes)

Before putting in real money, do a $10 test:

• Buy $10 worth
• Immediately try to sell
• Can you sell? At what loss?
• Is the slippage reasonable?

If you can't sell $10, you definitely can't sell $10,000.

Advanced Detection Patterns

For those who want to go deeper, here are patterns that predict rugpulls with 85%+ accuracy:

Behavioral Patterns:

• Tax changes more than once = rug incoming
• Social media less than 30 days old = likely scam
• Anonymous team with no track record = 90% rug rate
• Paid influencer promotion = 75% rug rate
• "Audit" by unknown firm = meaningless

Technical Patterns:

• Mint function exists = can create infinite tokens
• Pause function exists = can freeze trading
• Blacklist capability = honeypot risk
• Upgradeable proxy = can change everything
• Hidden functions = definitely malicious

Market Patterns:

• 80% of supply bought in first hour = insider accumulation
• Perfect ladder buys (same amounts) = fake volume
• No selling for first hours = honeypot or insiders only
• Sudden social media blast = exit incoming

The Forensics of Famous Rugs

MELANIA ($2.4M stolen): Looked perfect on scanners. Team used 15 connected wallets to accumulate 60% of supply in first minutes, then dumped simultaneously. Lesson: Check wallet connections, not just contract code.

HAWK (80% insider captured): Launched with massive social push. 800+ transactions in first 100 blocks, 95% from bots connected to team. Retail never had a chance. Lesson: If you're not first, you're last (and first is always insiders).

The $75K Personal Loss: Trader lost $75K across 12 rugpulls. Every single one showed "SAFE" on scanners. Pattern: Over-reliance on automated tools, no manual checking. Lesson: Scanners are just one tool, not the truth.

Your Protection Protocol

Here's your new rulebook for not getting rugged:

Before You Buy:

1. Run through multiple scanners (look for disagreement)
2. Check wallet connections manually
3. Verify liquidity lock yourself
4. Research developer history
5. Do the $10 sell test

Red Lines (Never Cross These):

• Unverified contract = don't trade
• Liquidity not locked = don't trade
• Can't sell test amount = don't trade
• Developer previously rugged = don't trade
• Your gut says no = don't trade

Position Sizing:

• Never more than 1% of portfolio in unproven tokens
• Take initial out at 2x always
• Leave moon bag only with profit

Monitoring:

• Set alerts for tax changes
• Watch developer wallet
• Track liquidity changes
• Notice social media behavior

The Truth About Safety

Here's what nobody wants to admit: In memecoins, 95% of tokens are scams. That's not pessimism - that's data.

Your job isn't to find the safe ones. Your job is to avoid the dangerous ones. There's a difference.

Scanners won't save you. They're tools, not solutions. A hammer doesn't build the house - the carpenter does.

The only real protection is knowledge and paranoia. Check everything twice. Trust nothing fully. And when something feels wrong - even if you can't explain why - listen to that feeling.

Your Homework

This week, pick 5 tokens that are pumping. Run them through this complete check. I guarantee you'll find at least 3 are scams the scanners missed.

Once you see how common rugpulls really are - once you spot them yourself instead of trusting tools - you'll never trade the same way again.

The scanners say 62% accuracy is good enough. For your money, it isn't.

Stay paranoid. Stay profitable. And remember: In crypto, everyone is trying to take your money until proven otherwise.